Bitcoin’s been having a rough time lately. With its price dropping to $92,442, down 14.5% from its all-time high of $108,000, many are wondering if the much-expected “Santa Claus rally” will happen this year. While Bitcoin has shown some recovery to about $94,000, it’s still down over 11% in the last week. So, will the holiday season bring the boost we’re hoping for, or is this a sign of things to come?

The Santa Claus Rally: Will It Show Up?

In the past, crypto markets have tended to perform well during the holiday season, especially in years right before market peaks. For example, 2016 and 2020 saw some solid rallies, just before crypto prices hit their all-time highs. A study by CoinGecko even shows that between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets rallied post-Christmas 8 out of 10 times. On average, market caps jumped between 0.7% and 11.8% from December 27 to January 2. So, people naturally look to the Santa Claus rally for some cheer.

But not every year plays out like that. In 2021, for example, Bitcoin had already dropped by 26% by Christmas Day and continued its fall throughout 2022. Even so, many still expect 2025 to be a big year for Bitcoin, following the usual four-year market cycle.

What’s Happening Now?

Even though Bitcoin’s price drop isn’t quite what people expect from a Santa Claus rally, there are a few things coming up that could shake things up. Around December 27, about $18 billion in Bitcoin and Ether options contracts will expire. This could cause some serious volatility, possibly leading to a change in Bitcoin’s price. Also, Bitcoin’s social sentiment dropped to its lowest point of the year in late December. This could mean that a recovery is on the horizon.

In terms of past performance, Bitcoin’s movements around Christmas have been all over the place. Some years, it surged, while other years saw it drop. If we look at December as a whole, Bitcoin has had a decent average return. On average, betting on the entire month of December has been more profitable than focusing only on the Santa Claus rally.

What to Expect

As we approach the end of 2024, everyone’s eyes will be on Bitcoin’s next move. Will it rebound, or will it continue to struggle? There’s still hope that Bitcoin might surprise us in the final days of December, especially with the expiration of options contracts and a shift in market sentiment.

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